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Statistical models in trends of COVID-19 case fatality rates, India: a secondary data analysis

Journal of Cancer Prevention & Current Research
Naresh K Tyagi,1 Jang Bahadur Prasad,2 Anushri P Patil3

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Background: The COVID-19 is potentially severe acute respiratory infectious disease, increasing day by day. Hence, to control of COVID-19 cases and deaths due to, study has been under taken with an objective to establish the models of trends in COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates for states of India, so that containment performance is assessed taking model as reference level.
Materials and methods: The state-wise data from Kaggle website were used to study the levels and trends in Case Fatality Rate per 100 cases (Cured + Deaths) using Modified Logistic Regression Model, using SPSS-22 and Microsoft Office-10. The model is useful, where; deaths due to COVID-19 were more than one.
Results: Himachal Pradesh was the best in controlling the disease, as per COVID-19 Active Cases and Case Fatality Rate. In Himachal Pradesh, COVID-19 stabilized by 45 days of presence of the disease, while, in Kerala by 100 days. Furthermore, the decline in COVID-19 in Himachal Pradesh was steadier and smoother as compared to comparable state Kerala. The worst group of states in controlling the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in poorest to better order was Maharashtra followed by Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, along with wide fluctuation in Active Cases and Case Fatality Rates.
Conclusion: The worst affected state by COVID-19 was Maharashtra followed by Delhi, Rajasthan etc., reasons may be large movements of daily wagers/ temporary workers. Hence, the containment of COVID-19 is expected to be achieved by restriction in public movement and unrest in communities.


COVID-19, case fatality rate, states of India, modified logistic regression