Abstract

The effects of canal activity not only prevent a greater economic contraction derived from the pandemic, but also allow for rapid economic recovery in Panama. The objective of the study is to determine the economic impact of the Canal in relation to production, added value, employment and salary income. The methodology used is the analysis of direct, indirect and induced impact attributed to the Input-Output Tables (IOT) method, for which the 45X45 IOTs have been developed in the years 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, incorporating the financial information from the Panama Canal Authority and the Supply and Use Tables at 2018 prices and with chained volume measurements provided by the National Institute of Statistics and Census. The results indicate that at the time of the considerable economic contraction in the country, estimated at 17.9%, the Canal grew by 7.2% of its production compared to fiscal year 2019, maintaining that the weight of this activity for this referenced year reached 5.5% of the GDP when adding indirect and induced effects; while in 2020 it reached 7.6%, gaining 2.1 units of this magnitude. For its part, the added value exceeds the growth in production, setting an evolution in its growth of 11.1%, with a less intense participation than in production, going from 4.2% in 2019 to 5.8% in 2020 of the value total added; However, the results in employment and salary income show a different dynamic when compared to 2019, with the former falling by 2% and the latter by 5%, considering that by 2019 canal employment included all the effects between 0.5% and 1.2% of total employment; improving this relationship in 2020 with a range between 0.6% and 1.5%. In subsequent years, the behavior of this service activity provides an important contribution to the aforementioned indicators in the country, ignoring the negative impacts of the container crises, the war between Russia and Ukraine; and the increase in interest rates.

Keywords

Panama Canal, jobs, economic impact, direct production, salary income