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Understanding risks and time to congestive heart failure following incident atrial fibrillation

Biometrics & Biostatistics International Journal
Adeniyi T Togun,1 Ifedolapo A Bamikole2


Objectives: Evaluate how different comorbidities increase 3-year risk of incident congestive heart failure (CHF) in new atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and the time from diagnosis of AF to developing incident CHF while controlling for risk factors and treating death as a competing risk event. Methods: We utilized CMS Medicare 100% inpatient and outpatient claims data between 2013 and 2017. Patients with new AF diagnosis (without concurrent CHF at AF diagnosis) in 2014 who had 1-year continuous enrollment prior to their AF diagnosis (baseline period) and no prior diagnosis of AF or CHF in the baseline period were identified. Results: With every 1-year increase in age of incident AF patients, 3-year risk of CHF increases by 2.6%, presence of coronary artery disease, COPD, diabetes mellitus, peripheral artery disease, and cardiomyopathy increases 3-year risk of CHF by 22.1%, 30.2%, 31.9%, 15.2%, 44.8%, and 6.3% respectively. Blacks with incident AF had 6.9% higher 3-year risk CHF than Whites. For the average aged female patient in our cohort (78.5years) with no comorbidities and death as a competing risk, we found the probability of CHF within the first 3 years after AF diagnosis to be 23.5%, 17.5% within the first 2 years, and 10% within the first year. Conclusion: Various comorbidities affect the risk of CHF differently in incident AF patients. Cumulative risk of incident CHF appears to increase fastest within the first few years following incident AF diagnosis.


atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, risk of congestive heart failure, time to congestive heart failure