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ARIMA model for COVID-19 and its prediction in India


Biometrics & Biostatistics International Journal
Kamlesh Kumar Shukla,1,2 Syed Azizur Rahman,3 Ranjana Singh,4 Rama Shanker5

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Abstract

In this paper, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been applied to know the trend and to predict future pattern of present COVID-19 in India. Accuracy of the model has been checked. Data from July 1, 2020 to August 3, 2021 has been taken for the study. We estimated ARIMA model to forecast the epidemic trend over the period after July 1, 2020, by using the Indian epidemiological data (www.COVID19india.org)1 at national level. The data refer to the number of daily confirmed, total confirmed and deceased cases officially registered by the Indian Ministry of Health (https://api.COVID19india.org/) for the considered period. The main aim of this study is to know the trend of COVID-19 daily cases as well as deceased cases, and forecast for next 120days after August 3, using appropriate ARIMA model. 

Keywords

ARIMA, COVID19, KPSS-test, PP-test, MSE, ME, Confirmed cases

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