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How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis


Biometrics & Biostatistics International Journal
Atiqur Chowdhury,1 K M Ariful Kabir,2 Jun Tanimoto3

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Abstract

In this paper, we develop a novel theoretical model named “Social distancing SEIQR model” to control the spread of infection by combining both quarantine and social distancing explicitly based on the real cases that observed where medical equipment and others resources are limited. COVID-19 is a transmissible viral disease that has rapidly stroke around the world and is currently a major thread for the developing countries. The basic reproduction number of infectious disease dynamics model is very effective tools as a threshold quantity in the epidemiology context. To validate our model, a linear regression polynomial fit analysis has been studied and fitted our simulated data with the original data. A high percentile R2 values established our model to analyze the future situation for Bangladesh with strong confidence. For that, we have analyzed the basic reproduction number mathematically and statistically, then discuss our findings and shown our model is an outstanding model to make a decision which situation is good for developing country like Bangladesh or under poverty level countries to stop the COVID-19 coronavirus from spreading.

Keywords

novel coronavirus, mathematical model, basic reproduction number, next generation matrix, transmissibility

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