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Models and data analysis of the outbreak risk of COVID-19


MOJ Applied Bionics and Biomechanics
Jinming Cao,1 Xia Jiang,2 Bin Zhao3

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Abstract

With the spread of the new corona virus around the world, governments of various countries have begun to use the mathematical modeling method to construct some virus transmission models assessing the risks of spatial spread of the new corona virus COVID-19, while carrying out epidemic prevention work, and then calculate the inflection point for better prevention and control of epidemic transmission. This work analyzes the spread of the new corona virus in China, Italy, Germany, Spain, and France, and explores the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of the number of new corona virus infections and time. In investigating the dynamics of a disease such as COVID-19, its mathematical representation can be constructed at many levels of details, guided by the questions the model tries to help answer. Mathematical sophistication may have to yield to a more pragmatic approach closer to the ability to make predictions that inform public health policies. MOJ Applied Bionics and Biomechanics Mini Review Open Access Background: In December 2019, the first Chinese patients with pneumonia of unknown cause is China admitted to hospital in Wuhan, Hubei Jinyintan, since then, COVID-19 in the rapid expansion of China Wuhan, Hubei, in a few months time, COVID-19 is Soon it spread to a total of 34 provinciallevel administrative regions in China and neighboring countries, and Hubei Province immediately became the hardest hit by the new corona virus. In an emergency situation, we strive to establish an accurate infectious disease retardation growth model to predict the development and propagation of COVID-19, and on this basis, make some short-term effective predictions. The construction of this model has Relevant departments are helpful for the prevention and monitoring of the new corona virus, and also strive for more time for the clinical trials of Chinese researchers and the research on vaccines against the virus to eliminate the new corona virus as soon as possible.

Keywords

corona virus, logistic growth model, infection prediction and prevention

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